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US Hill Democrats See Large Deficits in Bush Domes

US Hill Democrats See Large Deficits in Bush Domes, US Hill Democrats See Large Deficits in Bush Domestic Agenda> Sep 21 / 12:54 EDT hxxp://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1095785640000&sn=1&banner=mainwire Auszug: WASHINGTON (MktNews) - Seeking to nudge fiscal issues into the 2004 campaign, House Democrats released a memo Tuesday saying the domestic agenda that President Bush announced at the Republican convention has a "multi-trillion dollar price tag" that would propel the U.S. into an era of endless deficits. .................. "Just making permanent the tax cuts that are set to expire in 2010 will cost $1.1 trillion from 2010 to 2014 alone. Such proposals are not compatible with reducing the record deficits that have occurred under this administration," the memo says. ..................... The report tried to link large deficits and rising debt to higher long-term interest rates and to an uncertain future for Social Security and M [mehr]

US Budget Deficit - When will foreigners reject US

The widening U.S. current account deficit, NEW YORK -- The widening U.S. current account deficit will require a decline in the value of the dollar, a top Federal Reserve official said on Thursday. Dallas Fed President Robert McTeer said there were only two ways to address the deficit: for U.S. incomes to shrink so that people purchase fewer imports, or for the dollar to weaken. .... [mehr]

Original story about 20% dollar devaluation

Original story about 20% dollar devaluation, Original story about 20% dollar devaluation from The Business hxxp://groups.yahoo. [mehr]

T-bill auction

T-bill auction, NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Treasuries prices turned lower in choppy trade on Thursday as an auction of U.S. government debt drew almost no private demand, leaving the dealer community holding a pile of paper. The sale of $9 billion in reopened 10-year Treasury notes went at a high yield of 4.195 percent, well above expectations, and drew bids for only 2.12 times the amount on offer, down from August's 2.90 level. The breakdown showed indirect bidders, including customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, picked up only $257 million, or just 2.8 percent of the whole issue. That compares to 54 percent in the original sale of the notes in August and 38 percent in the last reopening. Die USA werden noch nicht einmal mehr ihre 10-jährigen Treasuries in einer Auktion ordentlich los. [mehr]

I.M.F. Chief Sees Potential Hazard in U.S. Fiscal

I.M.F. Chief Sees Potential Hazard in U.S. Fiscal, I.M.F. Chief Sees Potential Hazard in U.S. Fiscal Policies hxxp://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/21/business/worldbusiness/21fund.html Auszug: The managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Rodrigo de Rato, said yesterday that the dollar would have to fall and the United States would have to tackle its growing indebtedness to avoid a threat to the world economy some time in the future. .............. He noted that with the United States' deficit remaining well over 4 percent of its gross domestic product for years to come, "some correction in the value of currencies will make sense from the point of view of fundamentals.'' "We believe such a large imbalance is a risk not only for the United States economy, but for the world economy,'' he said .................. [mehr]

Bearish on Uncle Sam? - The end of the free lunch?

Bearish on Uncle Sam? - The end of the free lunch?, Bearish on Uncle Sam? - The end of the free lunch? hxxp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A43402-2004Oct18.html NEW YORK -- On Sept. 9, as it must frequently do, the U.S. government turned to Wall Street to raise a little cash, and Paul Calvetti bet that demand for $9 billion worth of long-term Treasury bonds would be "huge. ..................... "It's amazing," he gasped, after the Treasury Department announced that Wall Street traders, not foreigners, had been left to buy virtually the entire auction. "I don't think I've ever seen this before." .......... . But a ash of new data, including Treasury Department figures released yesterday showing a net sell-off by foreigners of U.S. bonds in August, has stoked debate over whether overseas investors -- private individuals, institutions and government central banks -- are growing dangerously bearish on the U.S. economy. ....................... for example, and the govern [mehr]

Morgan Stanley Global: Collision Course

Michael Lombardi, September 28, 2004 The Bank of England was the first of the major central banks to raise interest rates. As we know, the U.S. Federal Reserve followed suit. Rates are also rising in countries like Canada. In general, central banks around the globe are raising interest rates. This could be perceived as good news because the confidence central bankers display in raising rates sends a layman's message that economies are improving. However, higher rates have a severe, negative impact on people, companies, and institutions that are heavily in debt. Japan is a case in point. Japan is the second largest economy in the world after the U.S. Right through the three recessions the country encountered since 1991, the Japanese government decided to spend "like crazy" to get its economy going. Japan's federal government debt is now 145% of gross domestic product. Japan's debt is the largest in the industrialized world. And higher interest rates will make th [mehr]

Reality Check: U.S. Retailers Say Consumers Held

Reality Check: U.S. Retailers Say Consumers Held, Reality Check: U.S. Retailers Say Consumers Held Back in September Oct 5 / 10:28 EDT http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1096986480000&sn=1&banner=mainwire NEW YORK (MktNews) - U.S. retailers saw little to gloat about in September, with some seeing signs of consumers tightening their purse strings in the face of economic uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil and uncooperative weather. The late start to the Labor Day weekend, when combined with an earlier start to back to school, was seen as more of a detriment than a plus as it probably pulled some September shopping back into August. ...................... Wal-Mart downgraded to a 2.3% comp-sales increase for September after earlier projecting a 2% to 4% increase. The discount giant said sales in hurricane areas were negatively impacted but then picked up after the hurricanes passed. "Hurricanes are events which affect the timing of sal [mehr]

US Budget Deficit Alert Warning

US Budget Deficit Alert Warning, US BUDGET DEFICIT ALERT WARNING hxxp://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1098128340000&sn=1&banner=mainwire U.S. Budget Group Says Both Bush & Kerry Offer Weak Fiscal Plans Oct 18 / 15:39 EDT WASHINGTON (MktNews) - Neither President Bush nor his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, are offering fiscal plans that adequately address the nation's fiscal challenges, says the Concord Coalition, a budget watchdog group. In a detailed study of the fiscal plans of Bush and Kerry, the budget group concludes that while the two candidates are offering sharply different fiscal plans, neither has a "credible" plan for dealing with the U.S.'s serious fiscal problems. The Concord Coalition says that when plausible spending and revenue assumptions are used the projected 10-year budget deficit is close to $5 trillion. ................ It adds that while the short-term outlook is gloomy, the longer-term outlook [mehr]

Global: Productivity Convergence? - S. Roach

Global: Productivity Convergence? - S. Roach, Global: Productivity Convergence? - S. Roach hxxp://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20041015-fri.html#anchor0 These possibilities point to a rather shocking possibility on the US productivity front. Since the mid-1990s, business productivity gains have averaged a little over 3% -- a dramatic improvement from the anemic pace of the preceding 25 years, which averaged closer to 1%. I am not arguing that America will revert to the productivity stagnation of yesteryear. But an increasingly saving-short US economy could well have an exceedingly difficult time funding the investment requirements of ongoing productivity vigor. And the two transitional factors -- capital deepening and slash-and-burn cost-cutting -- may well be about to fade. It is perfectly conceivable, in my view, that US productivity growth could slow to the midpoint between the 3% vigor of the past eight years and the anemic 1% pace of the preceding 25 years. That would [mehr]

CBO Projects $442 Billion Federal Deficit

CBO Projects $442 Billion Federal Deficit, Associated Press CBO Projects $442 Billion Federal Deficit Tuesday September 7, 6:24 pm ET By Alan Fram, Associated Press Writer Congressional Analysts Project This Election-Year's Federal Deficit Will Reach $422 Billion WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Congressional Budget Office projected Tuesday that this election-year's federal deficit will hit a record $422 billion, a shortfall that would be smaller than analysts predicted earlier this year. hxxp://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040907/budget_deficit_7. [mehr]

Bubble trouble

yep, gestern gerade Zinsen erhöht, Amerikanische Verbraucher stecken bis zum Hals in Schulden Von Peter Bauer, dpa New York (dpa) - Die Amerikaner zeigen keinerlei Zurückhaltung beim Konsum. Sie tragen mit ihren Einkäufen fast 70 Prozent der amerikanischen Gesamtwirtschaft. Die niedrigsten Zinsen seit mehr als vier Jahrzehnten und die großzügigen Steuergeschenke von US-Präsident George W. Bush während der vergangenen Jahre haben die Kauflust der amerikanischen Konsumenten angeheizt wie nie zuvor. Die zusätzlichen Mittel aus Washington reichten aber allein nicht aus, sondern die US-Bürger haben sich immer stärker verschuldet, um ihre Haus-, Auto- und anderen Kaufrausch-Anschaffungen zu finanzieren. Die Sparrate nähert sich Null, und die Amerikaner liegen damit fast ganz hinten in der globalen Sparraten-Liga. Die US-Konsumenten haben ihre Schulden seit 2000 um insgesamt 34 Prozent auf ein Rekordniveau 9,5 Billionen Dollar (7,8 Billionen Euro) erhöht. Der größte Teil der Ver [mehr]

US Economy Continues Decelaration as Deficits Soar

US Economy Continues Decelaration as Deficits Soar, Factory Orders Are Down for the First Time in 4 Months, With Demand Falling for Commercial Planes WASHINGTON (AP) -- Orders placed with U.S. factories fell for the first time in four months, the Commerce Department said Monday, with demand dropping sharply for commercial airplanes and parts. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041004/economy_16.html U.S. ISM Non-Factory Index Falls to 56.7 in September Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Growth in U.S. services slowed for a second consecutive month in September, suggesting the rise in energy prices this year is limiting the economic expansion. http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aEeTICSUDv8c&refer=home Holiday spending seen curbed Survey: Higher gasoline prices are a factor NEW YORK - Most Americans are planning to curb their holiday spending this year, making it a challenging shopping season for U.S. retailers, according to a holiday buying survey by The NPD Group [mehr]

Number of Unemployed who have gone without Federal

Number of Unemployed who have gone without Federal, NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WHO HAVE GONE WITHOUT FEDERAL BENEFITS HITS RECORD 3 MILLION hxxp://www.cbpp.org/10-13-04ui.htm Since late December, when the federal Temporary Extended Unemployment Compensation program stopped providing additional aid to individuals exhausting their regular unemployment benefits, a record number of jobless workers have exhausted their regular benefits, gone without federal aid, and received neither a paycheck nor an unemployment check. Based on actual figures through August and the author’s estimates through mid-October: The three-million figure. From late December through the middle of October, an estimated 3,053,000 unemployed individuals will have exhausted their regular unemployment benefits. About 34,000 of them will have qualified for additional unemployment aid through the federal/state extended benefits program. The remaining three million individuals will not have qualified for any federal unemploy [mehr]

Fed Downplays Fears of High Consumer Debt

Fed Downplays Fears of High Consumer Debt, Fed Downplays Fears of High Consumer Debt hxxp://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6345555 Auszug: NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumers are in good financial shape, a top Fed official said on Monday, dismissing fears that high levels of household debt are unsustainable. Concerns about a housing market bubble are also overdone, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Gary Stern said, arguing that the sector's strength is based on solid fundamental demand. Some economists have worried that steep consumer debt levels at a time when interest rates are rising and the labor market is still ailing could make for a dangerous combination, potentially hurting economic growth down the line. But Stern was more sanguine. "I personally think concern about consumer debt is exaggerated in many quarters," Stern said, noting that household net worth is at an "all-time high." "Overall, on average, consumers [mehr]

US business conditions are deteriorating - R. Bren

und noch ein super beitrag! thanx! o. T. [mehr]

Crisis looms due to weak dollar

Crisis looms due to weak dollar, Crisis looms due to weak dollar hxxp://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200409/28/eng20040928_158593.html Auszug: "Given the deteriorating relations between the United States and the Arab world, quite a few Middle Eastern oil-exporting countries have begun to increase the proportion of the euro used in international settlement. Reportedly Russia is also going to follow suit." Ist der Ölschock eine Manifestation von den gestörten und sich verschelchternden Beziehungen zwischen den USA und der arabischen Welt? Nun könnt Ihr dem bevorstehenden Spektakel zuschauen, wie die Ölpreise steil nach oben ansteigen werden. [mehr]

US Budget Deficit - Up UP and Away

US Budget Deficit - Up UP and Away, US Budget Deficit - Up UP and Away hxxp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A45603-2004Sep23.html Auszug: Congress Votes to Extend Tax Cuts $146 Billion in Relief Would Be Bush's 4th Reduction in 4 Years ................. With the approval of the legislation, virtually all of Bush's first-term tax agenda -- four tax measures worth nearly $1.9 trillion over 10 years -- would survive a potential second Bush term, unless Washington elects to change the tax code again. The total is $300 billion more in tax relief than Bush envisioned with his first tax-cut proposal in 2001. .................. But the tax cut would exacerbate a budget deficit that will probably have to be addressed in the next presidential term, no matter who is in the Oval Offic ................... "Anyone voting 'no' is voting for a tax increase for the American people, especially on the middle class," warned Rep. Jim McCrery (R-La.), framing the terms of the debate. [mehr]

Reality Check: US Office Market Execs: Recovery St

Reality Check: US Office Market Execs: Recovery St, Reality Check: US Office Market Execs: Recovery Stalls In 3Q> Sep 29 / 11:21 EDT hxxp://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=62&banner=mainwire_features Ausschnitt: NEW YORK (MktNews) - The tenuous recovery in the U.S. office market stalled in the third quarter as lackluster job growth reduced demand for office space and political and other economic uncertainties made businesses less eager to expand, say real-estate management firms. ................. "Everybody is anticipating the elections, employment growth has been lackluster and companies are taking advantage of the bottoming of the market in terms of renewals," she said. .................. "The office market is just taking a leisurely stroll into recovery -- it's certainly not a brisk pace," said Robert Bach, national director of market analysis for Grubb & Ellis, the commercial property developer based in the Chicago suburb of Northbrook. "The [mehr]

China Rebuffs U.S., Refuses to Give Timetable on Y

China Rebuffs U.S., Refuses to Give Timetable on Y, China Rebuffs U.S., Refuses to Give Timetable on Yuan hxxp://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aqInugWKloSg&refer=home Ausschnitt: Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- China offered no new timetable for changing a nine-year-old peg of its currency to the dollar, and warned U.S. policy makers not to press too hard for a change. ``What we are trying to do is create the conditions for a market-based exchange rate,'' Central Bank Deputy Governor Li Ruogu told bankers at a luncheon in Washington. ``If you force China to change it will hurt the U.S. You destroy a goose that will give you a golden egg.'' ..................... The U.S. and Japan say China's currency is at a depressed level, giving Chinese producers an unfair advantage by making their goods cheaper abroad ................ Goldstein and the IMF say China needs to raise the value of the currency in order to ease inflationary pressure. Li today countered t [mehr]

US pension agency chief warns of solvency risk

US pension agency chief warns of solvency risk, UPDATE 2-US pension agency chief warns of solvency risk hxxp://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6443995 WASHINGTON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - The longer-term solvency of the U.S. agency that insures pensions is at risk, threatened by troubled airlines and other companies failing to fund their retirement plans, the agency's director said on Thursday. Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. Director Bradley Belt said he expects to report a significantly increased deficit for fiscal 2004, which ended Sept. 30, eclipsing 2003's record $11.2 billion deficit for the single employer insurance fund. "The longer-term solvency of the pension insurance program ... is at risk," Belt told lawmakers in a Senate Commerce Committee hearing. The pension agency slipped into a deficit in 2002 after having to bail out failed pension plans in the steel industry. Since then, troubled airlines have been straining the safety net [mehr]